THE WEEK AHEAD: BIGGEST WEEK OF THE QUARTER: INFINITYHEDGE Mon: * Anthropic to publicly file its S-1 investor prospectus [expected on mon o…
THE WEEK AHEAD: BIGGEST WEEK OF THE QUARTER: INFINITYHEDGE
Mon:
* Anthropic to publicly file its S-1 investor prospectus [expected on mon or friday]
* China: Fifth plenary session of Chinese Communist Party Central Committee begins in Beijing. It continues until Thu.
* Top officials from Saudi Arabia [Defence Minister], Turkey and Pakistan are to meet Iran's leaders in Tehran: This meeting is intended to start negotiations for the purpose of achieving a mechanism for security per iran FM spox
Tue:
* Israel election: Israelis head to the polls for the first parliamentary elections since the catastrophe of Hamas’s Oct 7 2023 attack. Many in the country regard this vote as the most important in Israel’s near 80y history. polls suggest that victory improbable for either side.
* Earnings: Robinhood, SK Hynix
Wed:
* UK: Budget day
* BOC: interest rate announcement: expected to raise rates
* FED: interest rate announcement: expected to wait until the midterm elections next month (another pivot point) before raising rates again
* Apple holds a “Pro & tell” product launch event, with new Macs & an iPad mini expected
* Earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft [focus on capex]
Thu:
* EU: interest rate announcement: No change expected
* US: PCE [hot], Q3 GDP advance estimate
* Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Merck, Eli Lilly, Reddit, Sandisk, Samsung, Shell, Coinbase, Blue Owl
Fri:
* Japan: interest rate announcement [No change expected], plus outlook report
* Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Eurozone Q3 GDP
* US: Q3 employment cost index
* Earnings: AstraZeneca, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil
Sun: US: Daylight Saving Time ends
TBA/Whole Week:
- Wars: Iran, Houthis, Ukraine: recent Houthi attacks on Saudi infra pushed Brent to ~$116–117 (highest since Apr). Oil has eased a bit after Trump comments ruling out imminent Iran strikes and Tehran meeting w/ Mecca Pact countries, is the key de-escalation to watch but risk premium remains high after midterms. Ukraine continues in the bg: infinity hedge
- AI: Anthropic S-1, Fable 5.5?, capex, hacks, Neoclouds vs Musk
- US midterm elections: Republicans are expected to lose both house and the Senate
Views:
- "I think earnings will determine whether this ... tech pullback is a buying opportunity, or is there a deeper correction ahead,": Lip of BakerAvenue Wealth Management.
- "There are a lot of balls in the air,": Giorgi of Alpine Macro.