FED WARSH PRESSER SUMMARY: INFINITYHEDGE Tldr: "THE GOOD NEWS FOR YOU IS WE HAVE A TASK FORCE FOR THAT" WARSH: FED DROPS FORWARD GUIDANCE F…
FED WARSH PRESSER SUMMARY: INFINITYHEDGE
Tldr: "THE GOOD NEWS FOR YOU IS WE HAVE A TASK FORCE FOR THAT"
WARSH: FED DROPS FORWARD GUIDANCE FROM POLICY STATEMENT; MARKETS SHOULD REACT TO REAL-TIME DATA RATHER THAN TRYING TO ANTICIPATE FED MOVES
"Forward Guidance not well-suited to the current policy conjuncture"......think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data. I think the financial markets work less efficiently when they ask a question, how will the Fed react to that incoming info"
WARSH: FED IS UNANIMOUS AND UNAMBIGUOUS IN COMMITMENT TO DELIVER 2% PRICE STABILITY; THE 2% TARGET ITSELF IS NOT UNDER REVIEW
WARSH: NO DISCUSSION OF RATE CUTS TODAY; POLICY RESTRICTIVENESS IS "UNEVEN" - APPEARS RESTRICTIVE IN HOUSING, BUT LESS SO IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
- Warsh said that he appointing a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy:
1. Fed Communications
2. The Fed's Balance Sheet:
> will review the benefits and risks of the current ample reserves regime and the composition of the balance sheet.
3. Data Sources:
> will evaluate new info sources and consider methodological changes to improve data-gathering, with the aim of giving policy-makers more accurate, relevant, contemporaneous, and perhaps most important, actionable information on the state of our economy.
"Fed needs real-time, contemporaneous data rather than relying on outdated survey methods and "echoes of history" that are subject to constant revisions"
4. Productivity and Jobs:
> it'll survey the pace, the reach, the economic impact of new general purpose technologies, including AI, and explore the implications for the Fed in pursuit of our employment and inflation mandates
5. Inflation Frameworks:
> examine the drivers of inflation, first principles, and weigh the full range of ideas for delivering price stability in a changing economy
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